MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0407...CORRECTED.
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
852 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030044Z - 030344Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL LINES OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL RATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AN
UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER CELLS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT WET SOILS AND LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE  THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS PUSHING MORE STEADILY EASTWARD THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE ELONGATED UPSTREAM JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...THE MULTIPLE
PRE-FRONTAL LINES OF CONVECTION ARE ALSO SHOWING MORE DOWNWIND
PROPAGATION EARLY THIS EVENING PER THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE
STRENGTHENING WEST-EAST GRADIENT OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOTED ON RECENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW LOOPS SUPPORT A CONTINUED TREND OF ENHANCED
FORWARD PROPAGATION.

AT THE SAME TIME...THROUGH 04Z EXPECT ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAIN
CORES TO BE CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WSR-88D
RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING THE HRRR). THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM COLUMBIA EAST-NORTHEAST
TO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... WHERE THE LATEST HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN SOME AREAS
ARE LESS THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR.

HURLEY

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40578835 40088789 39508805 39028917 38619105 
            38529153 38499208 38819249 39289244 39699214 
            40119108 40478962 
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