MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0409
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MID-LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN MISSOURI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090436Z - 091000Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON A SCATTERED BASIS
FROM THE MID-LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO CNTRL AND NRN
MISSOURI BY 09Z. TRAINING OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE COMMON AS 850-700 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE  PARALLEL
TO MEAN STORM MOTIONS WITH THE THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING TO 12Z.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN
INCREASING AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NWRN
MISSOURI INTO CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THESE SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN KANSAS INTO N-CNTRL ARKANSAS WITH VAD WIND PROFILE PLOTS FROM
KICT AND KTWX SHOWING 30-40 KTS AT 850 MB FROM THE SSW. MU CAPE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT PER TOPEKA 00Z RAOB WAS 2100 J/KG WHICH
WILL HELP TO FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS 850-700 MB
INFLOW CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH 12Z.

THE 850-700 MB LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
WSW...BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO INDIVIDUAL MEAN STORM
MOTIONS OFF TO THE EAST AT ROUGHLY 30 KTS. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS WITH THE AXIS AND TIMING OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM NEAR BIE TO COU TO STL. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS DIFFER IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDING
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE OF 1.5 INCH PWATS AND GREATER THAN 15 C
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AIR IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER OVER KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS 3
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TRAINING
CELLS WHICH IS CLOSE TO CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SITUATION WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED BEFORE 10Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40679613 40579522 40399432 39799272 38759042 
            37889094 39129507 40109659