MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0410
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
536 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEBRASKA / NERN KANSAS INTO
CNTRL/NRN MISSOURI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090935Z - 091300Z
 
SUMMARY...RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BETWEEN
11-13Z...LARGELY DUE TO A REDUCTION IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT
LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN MISSOURI.

DISCUSSION...A ROUGHLY 50-75 MILE WIDE AXIS OF TRAINING...ELEVATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT THE NOSE
OF A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM OKLAHOMA INTO CNTRL
KANSAS PER RECENT 850 MB VAD WIND PROFILE PLOTS. DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF 3-6 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER ATCHISON AND
PLATTE COUNTIES WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT GROUND TRUTH SUPPORTS
RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR NEAR PLATTE CITY...MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...A
NW-SE ORIENTED 70+ KT JET STREAK NEAR 250 MB OVER ERN KANSAS AND
SWRN MISSOURI HAS AIDED IN UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION AS
WINDS AT THIS LEVEL OVER IOWA APPEAR TO BE MORE WLY.

WHILE 850-700 MB OVERRUNNING OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT IN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...TRENDS IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE FOR OVERALL WARMING
CLOUD TOPS WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF WEAKER UPDRAFTS DUE TO A
REDUCING INSTABILITY. THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAKENING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FORECAST WEAKENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z PER RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP...SHOULD
BRING AN END TO LINGERING FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS BY ABOUT 12-13Z.
THE 00Z NAM CONEST AND NSSL WRF HAVE PERFORMED REASONABLY WELL
WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR AND HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE 08Z HRRR IN
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF RAINFALL INTENSITY THROUGH SUNRISE.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40619610 40499497 39959322 39419169 38949145 
            38689180 38819291 39259461 39549554 40119633