MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0411
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...CNTRL MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091822Z - 092200Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME
AREAS MAY LEAD TO HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS SERVING AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE...WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE NOTED ON THE
17Z SPC MESOANALYSIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE
OUTLINED AREA HAVE INCREASED TO GREATER THAN 1.60" OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AS WELL. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT OVER
MISSOURI IS INCREASING. TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS IS NOTED ON
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES INCREASING
INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE BASED ON DUAL-POL DATA.

HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR...NSSLWRF AND SPCWRF ALL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE OUTLINED AREA
THROUGH 22Z. WHILE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS RELATIVELY HIGH (1.5 TO 2.5 IN/HR)...TRAINING OF
CONVECTION MAY ALLOW SOME AREAS TO SURPASS THESE VALUES AND FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

RYAN

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38979246 38809095 38109015 37578998 37209056 
            37119184 36949340 36939475 37399572 37919500 
            38429347