MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0412
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091956Z - 100000Z
 
SUMMARY...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS
PROVIDING A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO
THE OUTLINED AREA ON LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW IS SERVING TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES IN AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN GRADIENT. THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0
TO 1.2" NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THESE VALUES ARE RATHER
ANOMALOUS AND TRANSLATE TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF GREATER THAN
+3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND THE 95TH TO 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS IMPROVING AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND FLOW IN
THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE OUTLINED AREA BECOMES
MORE DIFFLUENT. FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY WHERE REPORTS INDICATE THAT 1-2" OF RAIN
HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.

HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE HRRR...ARW...NMM AND SPCWRF ALL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES IN THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

RYAN

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40920481 40350407 40010343 39680298 38830299 
            38480312 37710366 37380415 37670467 38460505 
            39180555 40420576 40870555