MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0413
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
600 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 092158Z - 100200Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN KS/NERN OK
ARE PRODUCING 1-2 IN/HR RAINFALL RATES. AS THESE MOVE ACROSS AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED EARLIER RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW BLOSSOMED IN AN EARLIER CAPPED
BUT MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK. OUTFLOW
FROM AN AREA OF FORWARD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI
HAS SET UP A BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT OF
NEW CONVECTION IN SERN KS/NERN OK. TRAINING AND SOME CELL MERGERS
WERE NOTED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ACCORDING TO DUAL-POL DATA.

AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST INTO SWRN MISSOURI THEY WILL MOVE
OVER GROUND THAT RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS THE OUTLINED AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

RYAN

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38499363 38219229 37249236 36659355 36499440 
            36079568 36299684 36929707 37789622 38249520