MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0414
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1205 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER INTO FAR SWRN
MISSOURI / NWRN ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100404Z - 101000Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE OK/KS BORDER
INTO PORTIONS OF WRN MO/AR THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. 4-6 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 10Z ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM 0400 UTC SHOWED POCKETS
OF CONVECTION ACROSS A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES INTO THE OZARKS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE
WERE TIED TO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WERE MOVING THROUGH THE NERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A FORWARD EWD
SPEED OF ABOUT 30 KTS. DOWNSTREAM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE JUST NORTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED THROUGH SRN MISSOURI INTO AND ACROSS NRN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
20 TO 30 KTS OF OVERRUNNING NEAR THE 850 MB LEVEL...PER VAD WIND
PROFILE PLOTS.

AS A CLOSED LOW...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WRN
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO...CONTINUES EWD OVERNIGHT...SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST ACROSS THE RED
RIVER INTO CNTRL OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MODEST
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT AND REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...INTO THE ERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. FARTHER WEST...WIND FIELDS AND SOME
DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SUPPORTS THE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF ONGOING
STORMS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WHICH SHOULD TRACK OVER SOME OF
THE SAME LOCATIONS TO THE EAST RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN ADDITION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...JUST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO...IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER
THE THREAT AREA BETWEEN 06-10Z AS FORECAST BY SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. 

ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER A 3-4 HOUR TIME SCALE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37919381 37739316 37339280 36929274 36479289 
            36189326 35819412 35719529 35959672 36279739 
            36299749 36489756 36689764 36879762 37099753 
            37309738 37529707 37699662 37869505