MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0415
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
538 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SRN MISSOURI AND
NRN ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100934Z - 101430Z
 
SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WITH
A SLOW SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE ONGOING HEAVIEST RAIN. SOME TRAINING
OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS NERN OKLAHOMA INTO SWRN MISSOURI
AND NWRN ARKANSAS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
AND 3 HRLY RATES NEAR 3 INCHES.

DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
OVER THE ERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER HAS BEGUN TO DROP SOUTH WITH
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT REINFORCING AND NUDGING A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NERN OKLAHOMA. AN 850-700 MB LOW
ANALYZED ROUGHLY 80 MILES OF MEDICINE LODGE...KANSAS WILL ADVANCE
EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO VEER ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHIFT HAS ALREADY BEEN
NOTED IN THE KTLX 850 MB VAD WIND PROFILE. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE ADVANCING CIRCULATION
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OKLAHOMA WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR GIVEN GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. 

THE VEERED 850-700 MB FLOW WILL MORE CLOSELY ALIGN WITH MEAN CLOUD
BEARING LAYER WINDS...WITH SIMILAR MAGNITUDES OF 30 KTS TOWARD THE
ENE. WHILE DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO...WHICH MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD TRAINING...A FEW
POCKETS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING FROM NERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS OVER NWRN ARKANSAS THROUGH 15Z. FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE 3 HOUR TIME SCALE WHERE 3+ INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE ENTIRE AXIS SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37479366 37289232 36799153 35879185 35529325 
            35609529 36189649 37099644 37329517 
A