MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0417
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK...WESTERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 101955Z - 102230Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
AREAS HIT EARLIER BY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHWR/TSTM INTENSITY OVER CNTRL/ERN OK ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN
ORGANIZATION. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH THE EJECTING MID LVL
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT ACROSS KS ATTM AND STRETCHING SWWD BACK INTO
WRN TX. THE ENERGY ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE
ORIENTED FROM S CNTRL AND ERN OK INTO WRN AR. 

SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG HAVE POOLED SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN OK GIVEN STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND A
MOIST BNDRY. THE GOES-SOUNDER DATA SHOWS LI/S OF -5 TO -8 AND
PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
TEND TO BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS LIKELY NEAR AND
ADJACENT THE FRONTAL ZONE. A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...THE
STRENGTHENING MID LVL ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS FOSTERING
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT OVER NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD ADVANCE EAST INTO NWRN AR AND WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS OVER AREAS HIT EARLIER BY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
DICTATED BY HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OCCURS. THE HIRES
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS OVER WRN AR/SERN OK AND NRN TX. SO...IN THE SHORT
TERM...NERN OK AND NWRN AR WILL HAVE A HIGHER THREAT...BUT THE
POTENTIAL SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36289402 36139304 35739218 35089211 34629304 
            34459439 34439598 34539713 34919745 35639706 
            36129567