MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0418
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
619 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 102215Z - 110230Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS. ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS COLD-TOPPED
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
WRN AR. THE CONVECTION IS FOCUSING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A
STRONG FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED OVER THE REGION. SFC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING EAST-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A POOL OF MOIST AND 
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR POOLED OVER NERN TX/SERN OK AND SWRN AR.
VIS SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED WARM SECTOR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WHERE DIURNAL HEATING HAS ENSUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO LI/S OF -4 TO -7 LOCALLY AND
SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AS PER GOES-SOUNDER DATA. THIS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO
AND OVER THE FRONT WITH PERSISTENT LOW LVL SWLY FLOW...AND GIVEN
THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

THE LATEST HIRES MODELS INCLUDING THE 18Z NAM-CONEST AND THE 12Z
ARW/12Z NMMB SOLNS SUPPORT SOME INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING OF
MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMTS WHERE CELL-TRAINING
OCCURS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING...AND MAINLY OVER AREAS
WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAD ALREADY OCCURRED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   35779369 35769313 35759231 35559168 35289139 
            34789141 34519163 34229202 33909279 33779396 
            33869699 34039770 34589770 35409647 35719476