MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0431
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH FL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 252025Z - 260155Z
 
SUMMARY...LINEAR BANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS IS HELPING TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
MULTIPLE LINEAR BANDS OF CONVECTION...WHICH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HI-RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE OF THE HRRR...INDICATE
LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THESE RAINS IN ADDITION TO THE 1-2 INCHES ALREADY
RECEIVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAY RESULT IN LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30808153 30018133 29308105 28778098 28378134 
            27808188 27608237 27728266 28048278 28818267 
            29168300 29758275 30188248