MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0438
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND SRN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 240728Z - 241300Z
 
SUMMARY...A CONTINUED THREAT OF TRAINING CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SERN ALABAMA AND CNTRL/SRN GEORGIA THROUGH 13Z.
GIVEN PRIOR RAINFALL FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND SLOW EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE ENTIRE RAINFALL SWATH...FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA HAS LEFT
A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY AND NORTH OF DOUGLAS
GEORGIA AS OF 07Z. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN THIS
BOUNDARY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR REGENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TRAINING EVIDENT OVER SERN ALABAMA INTO WRN
GEORGIA. SSWLY 850-700 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS ACROSS THIS AREA...ACCORDING TO RECENT VAD WIND PROFILE
PLOTS...AND CONTINUES TO PARALLEL MEAN STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE
NNE. TRENDS IN THE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT HAVE SHOWN
THE WELL FORECAST INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
WHICH IS +2 TO +3 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ABOVE THE MEAN.

SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING
THROUGH ERN MISSISSIPPI...TO STEADILY MOVE EAST AT AROUND 20 TO 30
KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR TRAINING  AND 3 HOURLY RATES
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...MOST NOTABLY 3-5 INCHES IN 12 HOURS JUST WEST OF
TALLAHASSEE...FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY THROUGH 13Z.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 00Z ARW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS
FORECAST.


OTTO

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33188317 32668206 31758215 30508310 29838465 
            29548613 29568710 29978768 30728766 31498659 
            32478460