MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0004
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
718 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......FLORIDA PANHANDLE... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 231217Z - 231517Z
 
SUMMARY...A LENGTHENING BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4
INCHES IN 3 HOURS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST OF
A SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PER
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS, MOST UNSTABLE CAPE (MUCAPE) VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG ARE BEING TAPPED FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO,
WHILE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 850 MB INFLOW AROUND 40 KTS PER CURRENT VAD
WIND PROFILES ARE ALLOWING FOR AN ELONGATION OF THIS CONVECTION
INLAND. THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS PER THE LATEST
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AND GPS DATA SHOW VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00
INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA, WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE JANUARY.  

IN THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH 15 UTC), THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL REMAIN
WITHIN A BROADLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF, TO THE TUNE OF 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE SREF AND GEFS. MOREOVER, MUCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES
OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY SOME OF THE MORE RECENT
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, MOST NOTABLY WITH THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW,
WHICH BOTH SHOW AREAS OF 3-4 INCHES THROUGH 15Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

HURLEY

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30768433 30518361 29838418 29508508 29818568 
            30218596 30488565