MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0016
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1024 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN TX...WESTERN LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 210208Z - 210600Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS
WILL FOSTER SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SMALL SCALE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A FRONT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
TEXAS...ALONG WITH A RATHER ORGANIZED AND SLOW-MOVING MCS.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/HR ARE SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
DUAL-POL ESTIMATES...AND THE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH
PWAT ENVIRONMENT WITH VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BASED ON LATEST
GOES-SOUNDER DATA.

THE 01Z HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. THE 18Z NAM-CONEST SHOWED A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINS...BUT WITH MORE OF A FOCUS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DAMPEN OUT AFTER
06Z...WHICH SHOULD LEAD THE WAY FOR THE MCS TO WEAKEN. UNTIL THEN
THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW-MOVING MCS. THE
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31769354 31749240 31379184 30959219 30709345 
            30139487 30029555 30549576 31409481