MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0022
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
838 PM EDT THU APR 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MID TO LOWER OH VALLEY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030034Z - 030504Z
 
SUMMARY...A MORE ORGANZING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.  TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING
WITHIN THIS LINE COULD RESULT IN SOME 1-2" HOURLY RAINFALL RATES.


DISCUSSION...FLASH FLOODING THREAT INCREASING SOMEWHAT AT THIS
TIME THROUGH PARTS OF THE MID TO LOWER OH VALLEY..AS A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
COINCIDENT AXES OF HIGHEST PWS..ABOVE 1.25 INCHES..AND STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS NEAR OR ABOVE 50KTS..AND WILL LIKELY BE
AIDED BY THE MID LEVEL S/WV LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
LOWER OH VALLEY.  THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND DEEP LAYERED
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME TEMPORARY CELL
TRAINING..WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINS IN AN
HOUR OR SO.

QPF GUIDANCE..INCLUDING THE HI-RES AND GLOBAL..IS NOT IN
ESPECIALLY GOOD AGREEMENT..WITH SOME INDICATING CONVECTION WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED/LESS ORGANIZED..BUT WITH SOME MORE EMPHATIC THAT
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.  THUS..WITH
CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE..AT LEAST PERTAINING TO REAL HEAVY
RAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OR SO..STAYED WITH A POSSIBLE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.    

TERRY

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40128426 40068371 39768335 39228351 39078365 
            38608426 37928542 37378703 37288791 37398848 
            37598904 37778923 38008940 38148935 38408909 
            38748855 39068776 39548629 39828551 40078480