MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0024
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
726 AM EDT FRI APR 03 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN KY...FAR NORTHEAST TN...SOUTHWEST
VA---FAR SOUTHERN WV 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 031122Z - 031422Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING OF CELLS IN A WEST TO EAST DIRECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST KY---FAR NORTHEAST
TN---SOUTHWEST VA AND FAR SOUTHEN WV.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING---ONE
HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1"+ MAY EXCEED FFG VALUES

DISCUSSION...WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING OVERALL
PROGRESSION TO THE AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY---THERE STILL WILL BE
A PERIOD OF TRAINING THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTINO OVER SOUTHEAST KY INTO SOUTHWEST VA. 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS
OVER KY--SIGNALLING THE LIKELY START OF THE TYPICAL POST 120 UTC
WEAKENING.  HOWEVER---GIVEN THE CURRENT FFG VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST
KY INTO FAR NORTHEAST TN---SOUTHWEST VA---FFG VALUES WILL LIKELY
BE EXCEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION ROLLS EASTWARD
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

THE HI RES GUIDANCE FROM 0000 UTC ALL SEEM TO BE TOO FAR TO THE
NORTH WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE QPFS FROM 1200 TO 1800 UTC--ALTHOUGH
THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION
AFTER 1200 UTC.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37998231 37898170 37748115 37548077 37248067 
            36858095 36618145 36448189 36178310 36188475 
            36678636 36888651 37218620 37368580 37728448