MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0027
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1111 AM EDT TUE APR 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN IN...NORTHERN KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 071500Z - 071800Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FOSTER SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN LATEST IR SAT
IMAGERY GENERALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA...AND BEING AIDED BY
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FETCH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ADVANCING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE LATEST GOES-RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY
SUGGESTS SOME SUBTLE DRYING ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME VORT WHICH
APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE REPEATING AND BACK-BUILDING
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL AT
ALL AND EVEN REPEATED RUNS OF THE HRRR DOES NOT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE W/E ORIENTATION AND REPEAT NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY. SATELLITE
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
AND TRAINING GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED GOES-RGB ASSESSMENT COUPLED
WITH THE LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWING A POOL OF TCU STILL FOCUSED
JUST UPSTREAM OF THE ACTIVITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IN. THE UPSTREAM
INSTABILITY FEED WILL TEND TO FAVOR THIS...AND SO EXPECT THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

TRAINING AND BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVERS FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR...AND AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
LOCALLY POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38788655 38698488 38268328 37748335 37688452 
            38108616 38398675 38588686