MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0033
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
713 PM EDT WED APR 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN KY/SOUTHERMOST OH/SOUTHERN WV... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 082312Z - 090212Z
 
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS
EASTERN KY... SOUTHERNMOST OH AND SOUTHERN WV DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS MERGE...THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING INCREASES. FLASH FLOOD VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE
AS LOW AS AN INCH IN AN HOUR...AND THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED THAT
MUCH RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KY EARLIER.

THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP)
ARE NOT HANDLING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WELL.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP INDICATES THAT THE INSTABILITY BEING
TAPPED BY THE CONVECTION STARTS TO BECOME EXHAUSTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV TOWARD 02Z. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT
TIME...AND THE TREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH.


HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39268296 39178202 38918107 38358044 37698052 
            37318106 37258174 37238223 37278258 37268248 
            37408291 37698300 38188323 38248323 38558364 
            38648374 38758387 38828401 38978427 39108421 
            39178391 39238354