MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0034
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
932 PM EDT WED APR 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN KY/SOUTHERN OH/WV... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090131Z - 090531Z
 
SUMMARY..CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS AREAS WITH
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THIS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM EASTERN KY
AND SOUTHERN OH INTO WV WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IR IMAGES SHOW TOPS COOLING TO -70 C OVER SOUTHERN
OH...AND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODEL IS STILL STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AS THE CLUSTERS MERGE AND MOVE
EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER LOW ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN WV.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY WANES AFTER 09/05Z...AND THE CONVECTION AND THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE ON THE WANE. BEFORE THEN...MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE AND
THREE HOUR RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...FLASH FLOOD IS POSSIBLE. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40048136 39978100 39788031 39577960 39127909 
            38587932 38308015 38118132 37988214 37938260 
            37938273 37938272 37758332 37708381 37778431 
            38198481 38218481 38888486 39338441 39448432 
            39708399 39848361 39968312 40008269 40038188