MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0036...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 PM EDT THU APR 09 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IN...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OH...NORTHERN
KY...WESTERN WV 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091750Z - 092145Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND IMPACT AREAS THAT SAW RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU/TCU
FIELD OVER SOUTHERN WV AND EXTENDING BACK TO THE WEST OVER MUCH OF
KY AND SOUTHERN IN. ALREADY A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF COLD-TOPPED
CONVECTION ARE SEEN OVER NORTHERN KY THAT ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST.

GOES-SOUNDER DATA VALIDATES THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS SEEN IN
CONVECTIONAL VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH LI/S VALUES OF -6 TO -8 AND
SBCAPE VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...AND THE CONVECTION WILL BE IMPACTING MANY
AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY OVER 1 INCH/HR IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
TEND TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
OH...NORTHEAST KY AND INTO WESTERN WV.

THE 12Z NAM CONEST SUGGESTS LOCALIZED STRIPES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH 00Z...AND THESE TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO EXACERBATE ONGOING
RUNOFF PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40418236 40308083 39428041 38628099 38288200 
            38098288 37988428 38128526 38568577 39148558 
            39908420