MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0053
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1233 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 050431Z - 051000Z
 
SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF WEST TEXAS AND EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT OVER WEST TEXAS AS SOUTHEASTLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TRANSPORTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  RADAR TRENDS ALREADY
SHOWED A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF
LUBBOCK. SEVERAL REPORTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED.  SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 850 MB ARE FOREAST
BY THE RAP TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KTS DURING THE
NIGHT...WHILE THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROF SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND A HIGHLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALL POINT TO SLOW MOVING
AND ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
10Z.

AS OF 04Z...HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF DAWSON
AND BORDEN COUNTIES.  THINKING IS THAT THE MOST INTENSE RAIN WILL
BE SAGGING SOUTH AS CONVECTION BUILDS TOWARDS THE BEST MOISTURE
INFLOW.  RAINFALL INTENSITIES TO THE NORTH MAY NOT BE AS GREAT BUT
ANY ON GOING FLOODING MAY BE AGGREVATED BY ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

THE 02Z RAP MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FIELDS SEEMED TO
CAPTURE THE SHORT TERM TRENDS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 04Z.

ADDITIONAL 2 TO LOCAL 4 INCH RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34620138 34220075 33630032 32730008 31850007 
            31139998 30650034 30910183 31950275 32910308 
            33680306 34200293 34610256