MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0054
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
602 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 051002Z - 051500Z
 
SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF WEST TEXAS INTO THE MORNING.

THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VAD
WIND PROFILES FROM 88DS HAVE SHOWN LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS TAPS AN
AIRMASS WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J PER KG AT MOST...BUT THIS WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICENT TO SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE
MORNING.  

EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN APPROACHING AREAS WHICH WERE SOAKED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM LYNN AND TERRY COUNTIES EASTWARD
TOWARDS GARZA AND BORDEN COUNTIES. 

HRRR AND THE RAP SUGGEST THAT A BACK EDGE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE FORMING AS 700 MB WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH RAINFALL
INTENSITIES DIMINISHING OVER THE HARDEST HIT AREAS IN WEST TEXAS
BY 14Z. 

ADDITIONAL 1 TO LOCAL 3 INCH RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34170235 33900157 32560111 31860186 31680304 
            32190337 32890295 33850321