MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0055
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1054 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 060253Z - 060653Z
...SUMMARY...
THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...DISCUSSION...
CONCERN IS THAT HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING CONVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS AT THE SAME TIME
A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J PER KG IS POISED UPSTREAM AND SHOULD BE
DRAWN INTO CENTRAL TX AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT 700 MB OMEGA IS
MAXIMIZED. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CPR ALREADY INDICATED A DEEP
SATURATED LAYER IN PLACE TO THE REGION. THE TREND OF THE LAST 3
HRRR RUNS HAS BEEN TO FOCUS A QPF MAXIMUM BETWEEN 03Z AND 0730Z
ALONG A LINE FROM EAST OF TPL TO WEST OF PSN.
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MPD WAS PULLED SOUTH OF THAT LINE TO
COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE MOISTURE RICH INFLOW REGION.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
BANN
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...
LAT...LON 32029717 31809595 31029553 29629618 29069789
29489885 31129847
Last Updated: 1054 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015