MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0055
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1054 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 060253Z - 060653Z
 
...SUMMARY...

THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

CONCERN IS THAT HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING CONVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS AT THE SAME TIME
A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J PER KG IS POISED UPSTREAM AND SHOULD BE
DRAWN INTO CENTRAL TX AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT 700 MB OMEGA IS
MAXIMIZED.  THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CPR ALREADY INDICATED A DEEP
SATURATED LAYER IN PLACE TO THE REGION.  THE TREND OF THE LAST 3
HRRR RUNS HAS BEEN TO FOCUS A QPF MAXIMUM BETWEEN 03Z AND 0730Z
ALONG A LINE FROM EAST OF TPL TO WEST OF PSN.  

THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MPD WAS PULLED SOUTH OF THAT LINE TO
COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE MOISTURE RICH INFLOW REGION. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32029717 31809595 31029553 29629618 29069789 
            29489885 31129847