MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0058
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1258 AM EDT THU MAY 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TEXAS TO THE RED RIVER 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 070458Z - 071028Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TEXAS...JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY
10Z. TRAINING ELEMENTS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OVER NWRN
TEXAS HAS BEEN TRAINING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN OVER
THROCKMORTON...BAYLOR AND ARCHER COUNTIES WITH OBSERVED 1 HOUR
RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR PER MESONET OBSERVATIONS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THIS COMPLEX WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVERRUNNING FROM THE SOUTH...AND NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT
OBSERVED NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. 

WHILE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE RAP TO BE NEUTRAL OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH 12Z IN THE WAKE OF A MID-UPPER WAVE OVER NEW
MEXICO...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
TRAINING OF CONVECTION THROUGH 10Z. COVERAGE OF FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...JUST
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE CAUGHT ON TO
THIS IDEA ALONG WITH THE 12Z ARW TO SOME EXTENT...THOUGH ITS
PLACEMENT IS OFF. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34679937 34199707 33269719 32929939 33360036 
            34180052 
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