MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0060
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080038Z - 080538Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY AND WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN ITSELF IN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THE LLJ STRENGTHENING INTO THE
EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH NORTHERN TX..AND POSES AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING.  ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN
MOST EDGE/SHORT LINE OF CONVECTION HAS REMAINED FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TX..A MORE EAST-WEST LINE OF
CONVECTION SETTING UP JUST DOWNSTREAM THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL TX
POSES A BIGGER PROBLEM AS THIS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ENCOURAGES UPON
IT.  WITH A VERY PRONOUNCED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 70
DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR AND PWS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES FEEDING THIS
CONVECTION..AND SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENING TO 40+ KTS..CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT AIDED
BY A WEAK H5 S/WV LIFTING OUT OF WESTERN TX.

THE LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION.  EXPECT SOME ISOLATED 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES
AND SOME POSSIBLE 3-4+ INCH TOTALS WHERE SOME TEMPORARY CELL
TRAINING OCCURS WITHIN THE EAST-WEST LINE.

TERRY  

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34119676 34079619 33999556 33799491 33439445 
            33039433 32609453 32339521 32279646 32309760 
            32389836 32519888 32729914 33179922 33759870 
            33959821 34059744