MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0064
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHEAST TX/CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090040Z - 090340Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FEED CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST TX AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OK CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST...AS A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL INFLOW PUMPS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WILL TRACK INTO
SOUTHEAST OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GENERAL INCREASE IN THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500
AND 3500 J/KG) WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK.THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (WHICH INCLUDES THE LATEST HRRR...RAP AND 12Z
WRF NMMB) SUGGEST HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES AN HOUR
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. 

MESONET OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THESE HOURLY RATES. ONE AND THREE
HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND
25.0 INCHES...SO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST
SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT THE AREA NEAR THE RED
RIVER WILL SEE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
03Z.


HAYES

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36619534 36509483 36369462 36139455 35289431 
            34379422 33809424 33389440 33239455 33229452 
            33039610 33399717 34409744 35229751 36019707 
            36219683 36389637 36559585