MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0071
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1244 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OKLAHOMA INTO N-CNTRL ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 100444Z - 100914Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM PORTIONS OF ERN
OKLAHOMA INTO N-CNTRL ARKANSAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN
SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS AND CONTINUED NWD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX.

DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...COOLING TOPS ON IR SATELLITE AND CG
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER E-CNTRL OKLAHOMA WERE INDICATIVE OF A
REMAINING REGION OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN CLUSTERS OF
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM E-CNTRL OKLAHOMA INTO
N-CNTRL ARKANSAS. THESE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR OVER SATURATED SOILS FROM EARLIER RAINS ON
SATURDAY. REGIONAL VAD WIND PLOTS INDICATED THE STRONGEST 850-700
MB FLOW TO BE OVER ERN TEXAS...FEEDING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO ERN OKLAHOMA...ATOP A PRONOUNCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING NEAR THE RED RIVER. POCKETS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAIN FROM ERN OKLAHOMA INTO CNTRL ARKANSAS WHICH
CONTINUE TO FEED CONVECTION BENEATH A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT.

AS STORMS OVER ERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ENEWD...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE...BUT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH INTO ARKANSAS WHERE LESS INSTABILITY IS PRESENT PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. IN
ADDITION...UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LESS PRONOUNCED OVER ARKANSAS AS
THR REGION IS MORE DISPLACED FROM THE JET CORE TIED TO THE UPPER
LOW OVER COLORADO. THE REMAINING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER
E-CNTRL OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE WITH MANY HI-RES
MODELS THAT ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING THE CONVECTION
SUFFICIENTLY...SIGNALING A DEMISE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT AFTER
ABOUT 09Z FOR THIS REGION.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36489342 36299206 35169209 34589533 34589676 
            35659644 36349509