MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0076
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1108 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO NERN TEXAS...SERN OKLAHOMA...NWRN
LOUISIANA...WRN ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 110251Z - 110721Z
 
...CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERRUN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR TRAINING OVER
TEXAS...FROM SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. 

DISCUSSION...TWO SW-NE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED AT
02Z...ONE SOUTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND THE OTHER
EXTENDING ACROSS SERN OKLAHOMA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
TRAINING AXES OF HEAVY RAIN LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THESE TWO
BOUNDARIES AS SLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO PUMP DEEP MOISTURE NWD...PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1.75
INCHES OVER MUCH OF ERN TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF I-20.

TEXAS IS THE GREATEST CONCERN DUE TO AN UNOBSTRUCTED INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN THIS OCCURRING WITH
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL 3-7 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 

THE OTHER CONCERN IS REGARDING A CLUSTER OF TRAINING CELLS
CURRENTLY OVER SERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF
TOWARD THE EAST AS A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO NWRN
ARKANSAS BY 09Z. HOURLY RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3+ INCHES EXPECTED. GIVEN
SATURATED SOILS...AND LOW FFG VALUES...FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED LIKELY ACROSS BOTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO WRN ARKANSAS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36419288 36349205 35859168 34109243 32739385 
            31429492 30569681 30839817 31599821 32549719 
            33379707 34329674 35069567 36279365