MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0081
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131229Z - 131629Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING ENHANCED BY THE
APPRAOCHING SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL H5 S/WV WILL INCREASE
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN TX
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING AN
INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OF ORGANIZED AND LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTION THRU PARTS OF WESTERN TX..NEAR THE MID RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AREA.  EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND POSE AN INCREASE IN FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL INTO AT
LEAST THE LATER MORNING HOURS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TX.  THE APPROACH OF THE WELL DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL SUPPLY THE LARGE SCALE LIFT..WITH THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING TO BRING IN DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE.  PWS ARE ALREADY NEAR 2 INCHES AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE MOIST DUE TO THIS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

A MAJORITY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING SIGNIFICANT RAINS
OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA..INCLUDING THE
ARW..NMMB..WRF NSSL AND GEM REGIONAL.  EXPECT SOME POSSIBLE 2 INCH
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES..WITH SOME POSSIBLE 3-5 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS BEFORE THE EVENT TAPERS OFF.

TERRY 

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31089870 31029843 30869823 30529809 29949815 
            29389840 28879877 28539920 28459941 28419970 
            28419996 28440016 28560041 28750048 29240053 
            29860029 30429975 30479970 30979899