MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0088
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1021 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK...FAR SOUTHERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 161415Z - 161830Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF
TRAINING OF CELLS MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS
ADVANCING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION...AND THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING
DENSITY PRODUCT COUPLED WITH THE GOES OVERSHOOTING TOP ALGORITHM
CONFIRM A RATHER SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
HOUR.

THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BY THE APPROACH OF A VERY STRONG VORT
CENTER MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN NM. INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIKELY FOCUS SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT LEVEL OF INTENSITY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPSCALE GROWTH
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK/EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WHERE INCREASING SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR CELL-REGENERATION AND POTENTIAL FOR
BACK-BUILDING.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST A LINEAR SW/NE ORIENTED MODE TO
THE CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST BRIEF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH PWATS LOCALLY NEAR 1.25 INCHES. GIVEN THE
OVERSHOOTING TOPS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS...RAINFALL
RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/HR ARE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37819801 37609727 37159712 36529765 35429910 
            34830006 34500076 34590150 35230173 35930104 
            36700008 37249927 37659853