MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0092...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1212 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015
 
CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN GRAPHIC TEXT

AREAS AFFECTED...KS... MO...OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 170411Z - 170811Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION REMAINS WELL DEFINED OVER EASTERN KS INTO
NORTHEAST OK.  WHILE THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
PROGRESSIVE...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE LINE PUSHES INTO WESTERN MO AND EASTERN OK


DISCUSSION...LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE DEFICIENT AND
SLOW TO MOVE THE WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE EASTWARD FROM EASTERN KS
INTO WESTERN MO...ALTHOUGH THEY DO APPEAR TO SHOW BETTER SKILL
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN OK.  CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUE TO COOL WITH NO EVIDENCE YET OF WEAKENING OF THIS LINE. 
THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AS PER RADAR ESTIMATES IN
THE 1-2"+ RANGE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
FROM EASTERN OK INTO FAR EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO.  WITH 1 HOUR
FFG GUIDANCE VALUES AT OR BELOW 2"/HR ACROSS THESE
REGIONS...RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41119287 40699224 39509245 38739280 37519331 
            34599535 34239583 34159690 35179660 37809511 
            39769501 40229492 40809444 41039407