MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0093...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015
 
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...AR..MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 170747Z - 171147Z
 
SUMMARY...THIS MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION IS AN UPDATE TO
THE MPD #0092 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
CONVECTION PUSHES OUT OF THE PREVIOUS MPD AREA.  CONVECTION
REMAINS WELL DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN OK INTO
WESTERN AR.  HOWEVER---LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLOUD
TOPS WARMING ACROSS THIS AREA--SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.  


DISCUSSION...THERE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SECTION OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THAT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN
AREAS TO THE NORTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST OK.  THERE IS A WAVE EVIDENT IN LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
MOVING ALONG THIS SQUALL LINE THAT IS A TRANSITION POINT BETWEEN
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WAVE AND THE SLOWER PORTION TO ITS NORTHEAST.  OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THE GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS WAVE WHERE A MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD
PUSH OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR--WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2"+
POSSIBLE .  GIVEN THE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND THE
NORTHEASTWARD PUSH OF THE WAVE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE---THE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3
HOURS.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37659090 37649001 37338966 36948987 36529031 
            35089244 34499328 34139499 34419554 34599550 
            35779446 36409391