MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0094...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
553 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015
 
CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED

AREAS AFFECTED...TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 170826Z - 171426Z
 
SUMMARY...THIS MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION IS AN UPDATE TO
MPD #0091.  CONVECTION REMAINS WELL DEFINED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL TO  SOUTH CENTRAL TX. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
TWO WELL DEFINED WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  SLOW MOVEMENT/TRAINING OF
CELLS IN A WEST TO EAST DIRECTION IS SUPPORTING 2-3"+ RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR OR TWO IN THESE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BANDS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS NOT
SHOWING ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TO CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE ELONGATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.  MUCAPE VALUES
REMAIN VERY HIGH...2000 J/KG+ AS PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS AND LATEST
RAP AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION.  LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION---WITH THE
ARW---NMMB---NAM CONEST AND SPCWRF ALL SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING PAST 1200 UTC SUNDAY AS IT PRESSES IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRETION.  WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CAPE VALUES AND PW VALUES
2 PLUS STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BANDS OF
CONVECTION.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32419698 32259628 31589600 29279716 28639841 
            28719893 28849960 29140068 29250086 29470159 
            29650187 29820167 29910111 30159990 30469951 
            31229895 31699895 32079857