MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0103...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
151 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015
 
CORRECTED FOR FORECASTER NAME MISSING IN TEXT

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 190550Z - 191050Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO IMPACT A LARGE AREA OF
WEST-CENTRAL TX. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. EXPECT CELL MERGERS AND HEFTY
RAINFALL RATES TO CONTINUE GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY STILL IN
PLACE.

DISCUSSION...THIS MPD IS A CONTINUATION OF #0102 WHICH IS
ADDRESSING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL TX. THE
ONGOING COMPLEX HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AROUND SAN ANGELO...4.64 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED IN ONLY 90 MINUTES. THE CURRENT DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD IN TIME
WITH SOME OF THE CELLS BECOMING SEVERE IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES GIVEN THE MULTIPLE CELL
MERGERS/SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
RADAR SCANS. THE VAD WIND PROFILER FROM KMAF SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE INFLOW AS 850-MB WINDS REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...IN SPITE OF THE MULTIPLE HOURS
OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...BUOYANT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN WITH
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.

REGARDING THE RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST 04Z
HRRR...THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DRAG THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD.
MOST OF THESE MODELS TENDED TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION WEST OF 100W
LONGITUDE WHILE KEEPING LOCATIONS TO THE EAST DRY. THE MPD AREA
WAS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS. 


RUBIN-OSTER


ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33300034 33009897 32689849 32199823 31789833 
            31479865 31249914 30999997 30630074 30620157 
            31080245 32660166