MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0111
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1206 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 231605Z - 232105Z
 
SUMMARY...ENHANCING FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON EITHER SIDE OF A WARM
FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER.  THREAT INCREASING BY 21Z WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SLOWER MOTIONS AND MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED TOTALS. 


DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM DFW VIC TO CDS BECOMES
REINFORCED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM ONGOING BUT WEAKENING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION. VWP SHOWS 40-45KTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TX IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.      

NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD INSTABILITY
TRANSPORT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LAYER WAS MARKED BY MUCAPE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG. EXCELLENT
DIVERGENCE FROM EXITING 90+KT JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
MODERATE SHIELD PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLD POOL AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
 RATES OF 1.0-1.5"/HR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO EXACERBATE ONGOING
FLOODING CONDITIONS.    

SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTH TEXAS...
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...VERY STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT AND THE
CONFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER IS
CURRENTLY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT HAS
AMPLE INSTABILITY (3000+ J/KG CAPE) AND DECENT MOISTURE (1.25-1.5"
TPW) FOR EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION....HOWEVER THIS WILL
BE STEADILY BE INCREASING TO 1.6-1.75" RANGE BY 21Z...ALLOWING FOR
RATES TO INCREASE TO AROUND OR ABOVE 2"/HR. MAKING MATTERS WORSE
AROUND THE SAME TIME...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD SLACKEN WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF BACKBUILDING
AND TRAINING CONVECTION AS THE LINE APPROACHES 100W ALLOWING FOR
EXCESSIVE TOTALS IN THE 3-5" RANGE WITH LIKELY ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36629735 35419732 33909836 33060003 33130239 
            34360262 34650161 35260017 35699970 36589907 
            
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