MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0114
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
513 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OK...SOUTHEAST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 232100Z - 240300Z
 
SUMMARY...INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...FAVORING WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVY
QLCS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EVER SO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ALONG A LINE FROM EAST-CENTRAL KS DOWN TO SOUTHWEST OK. THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SUSTAINED BY STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW
COURTESY OF THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90+ KT H25 JET.
ADDITIONALLY...A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES AND SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500 J/KG ARE POOLED
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE QLCS BY A 40 TO 50 KT H85 JET.

THE ARW/NMMB AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE ALL A BIT SLOW WITH
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
STRONGER ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL THAT THE QLCS HAS
EXHIBITED. THE VERY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN
WELL-ORGANIZED AND LOCALLY VERY INTENSE WITH RAINFALL RATES THAT
COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR.

ADJUSTING FOR LOCATION...THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE
VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
OK...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY AND MAY BE LIFE-THREATENING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EAX...ICT...LUB...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38999539 38139474 36399515 34689684 33879866 
            33680013 34260094 35000044 35779857 36909745 
            37749696 38949646