MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0123
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
640 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHWEST
MO...FAR NORTHWEST AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 242230Z - 250130Z
 
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2
TO 3 HOURS...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MID EVENING. ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WHICH IS WELL DEFINED IN WV
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL OK HAS BEEN FOSTERING THE REGENERATION AND
PERSISTENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW HOURS
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. MEANWHILE...A REMNANT MCV
IS SEEN LIFTING GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
WESTERN AR WHICH CONTINUES TO FOSTER SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS INSIST ON THERE BEING A WINDOW OF ANOTHER 2
TO 3 HOURS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE SUPPORTING
ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO FOCUS SUFFICIENT LIFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FOR THE RAIN TO PERSIST. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LOCALLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AND
ESPECIALLY FOR FAR NORTHERN OK AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS WHERE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS IN PLACE.

HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE RATHER RAPIDLY BY MID
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE. UNTIL THEN...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OF COURSE
EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37899598 37739477 37019377 36359358 35639383 
            35519468 35969659 36039798 36289847 36759879 
            37509832 37799737 
A