MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0127
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 251808Z - 252308Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A PREDOMINANTLY FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS CONTINUES TO MATURE WHILE APPROACHING I-35...WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING TO DISPLAY QUASI-STATIONARY OR BACK BUILDING
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN DALLAS FORT WORTH AND SAN ANTONIO.  THE
MCS IS MOVING THROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
NEARING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AND ALSO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.

A COMBINATION OF LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL AS GLOBAL AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MCS CONTINUES TO MATURE AND MOVES EASTWARD.  GIVEN EXTREME
CAPES...HOURLY RATES OF 2 INCHES WILL BE EASY TO ACHIEVE...WITH
SLOWER MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF EVEN MORE.  THE TWO MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO BE IN VICINITY OF
THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE MESOLOW NEAR THE
RED RIVER.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35239722 35019552 33939481 32629497 31419570 
            30459687 29559835 30279912 31989820 33049800 
            34499833