MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0129
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
606 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...FAR
NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHWEST IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 252205Z - 260130Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING BAND OF CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF INTENSE AND SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION HAS SET
UP OVER CENTRAL KS...AND THERE IS AN AGITATED CU/TCU FIELD
EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND
FAR NORTHWEST MO.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST TX LIFTS INTO CENTRAL OK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
TEND TO BECOME MORE DIVERGENT AND WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG FEEDING
INTO IT COURTESY OF A PERSIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FETCH...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOULD EXPAND
IN COVERAGE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD AND
MAY EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST IN AN HOUR OR TWO.

THE SLOW MOTION AND SW/NE ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND SATURATED SOIL...EXPECT FLASH FLOODING TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41209458 40879389 39629499 38739657 38189764 
            38039823 38279859 38799836 39729741 40509626 
            40959542