MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0131
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
933 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST OK...FAR SOUTHWEST MO...AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 260030Z - 260500Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A STRONG MCS IS GRADUALLY
PIVOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AR. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE LINE IS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF KLIT WHERE A FEW CELL MERGERS
HAVE JUST OCCURRED. VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS AND FEW OVERSHOOTING
TOPS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THIS AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE MPD AREA...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND
MUCH OF THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING
INTERCEPTED BY THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND LA...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN. MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAINS NEAR A WELL-DEFINED
MCV WILL STILL TEND TO KEEP RAINS PERSISTING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER FAR NORTHEAST OK AND INTO NORTHWEST AR NEAR
THE OZARKS.

AS PER THE LATEST HRRR...ADDITIONAL RAINS OF LOCALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOCALLY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   37099456 36939291 36319138 35509076 34079104 
            33309159 33039245 33079319 33169400 33769440 
            34079440 34549422 35179418 35729467 36089503 
            36709518