MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0134
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 261753Z - 262353Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE
FLUX...WHILE 3 DISTINCT SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA.

WHILE THE AREA REMAIN CAPPED AS OF 18Z...CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION
AND FOCUS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGHS ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL AND
HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICT INITIATION CLOSE FROM 21-00Z IN VICINITY OF
1 OR MORE OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS.

WHILE MOISTURE IS ONLY MODEST...WITH 2M DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
PW VALUES NEARING 1 INCH...EXTREME CAPES AND AVERAGE CELL MOTIONS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES THAT FAVOR
TRAINING...HOURLY RATES OF 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  GIVEN THE
LONG TERM SATURATED CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. 

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35389854 35239733 34119692 32989723 32279820 
            32409931 33060001 34029998 34819959