MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0135
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL TX INTO NORTHEAST TX/SOUTH CENTRAL
OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 262350Z - 270400Z
 
SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICO IS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX
EARLY THIS EVENING. IR LOOP SHOWS COOLING TOPS ON THE CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX...AND TOPS ARE COOLING ON NEW CONVECTION NEAR
SJT. THE BROADLY CYCLONIC 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS TRANSPORTING
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...AND THE
SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED 3500 TO 4500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG THE
AXIS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 27/04Z) SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS NOT
A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SOLUTIONS (INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR...RAP AND 12Z NSSL WRF)
FAVORING ONE LOCATION OVER ANOTHER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR
1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOUR. 

THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS TRAINING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM WEST OF SJT THROUGH INTO NORTHEAST TX.
GIVEN SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34919716 33539639 31209841 29890005 30610128 
            32110058 33019999 33000000 34829879