MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0136
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OK AND ADJACENT AR/KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 270247Z - 270847Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE GROWING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
 AS THEY ORGANIZE WHILE MOVING EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST, FLASH
FLOODING IS A CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS OK IN THE 02Z
OBSERVATIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ORGANIZING OVER THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE.  CELL MOTION HAS BEEN
ROUGHLY 20 KTS IN A ROUGHLY EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.  INFLOW AT
850 IS 25-30 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES, JUST EXCEEDING
THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.  CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG LURK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ARE
APPROACHING 1.25" PER GPS INFORMATION.

RECENT RAP MASS FIELDS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
INTO THIS REGION, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER ORGANIZATION. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TOWARDS 1.50" OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS A COLD POOL AND
MOVES EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS PER FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS -- VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE FORWARD PROPAGATION.  THE
18Z CANADIAN REGIONAL, 00Z NAM CONEST, 12Z NMMB, AND 12Z SPCWRF
SHOW A SIGNAL FOR LOCAL 2-4" RAINS.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5", WHICH COULD BE EXCEEDED IN
AREAS WHERE CELL MERGE OR THERE IS PROLONGED CELL TRAINING.  FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE IN AN AREA WHICH HAS SEEN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THIS MONTH.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37299687 36649439 35229419 34439542 34799773 
            35279893 36099938 37089874