MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0140
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL...TN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 271854Z - 272354Z
 
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TN/LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN MVC.

DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF AN MVC NEAR WEST CENTRAL MS.  THE MCV IS
INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY TO HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND WEAKENING CLOUD LAYER WINDS. GIVEN
AN ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS THE MCV INTERACTS WITH THE
AIRMASS IN VICINITY OF SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT...ALONG
WITH AVERAGE CELL MOTIONS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS...HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO EXCEED LOCAL FFG VALUES. THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MS WHERE WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER AND
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND REPEATED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...MOB...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36518695 35608588 33878787 32618784 31628733 
            30978785 31698968 33249051 34489003 35558890