MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0141
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
527 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE/WESTERN KS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 272130Z - 280130Z
 
SUMMARY..STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS STORM MOTIONS SLOW INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN AXIS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS. THE MOTION OF THE STORMS HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW...AS
CORFIDI VECTORS SLOWLY VEER AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET (PER LOCAL VWP ACROSS THE REGION). THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
CELLS...ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE (AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TOP OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES...WHICH IS APPROACHING TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2-3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS (WHICH THE KDDC RADAR IS ALREADY INDICATING...BUT MAY VERY
WELL BE HAIL CONTAMINATED)...AS STORM MOTIONS SLOW AND INDIVIDUAL
STORMS MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW. THE POTENTIAL SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING... BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS
TO VEER WITH TIME. AT THIS POINT...FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE...AS THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR HIGHER
CONFIDENCE.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40099949 36419885 35529930 34430083 36310179 
            36320178 38070197 38560201 38560201 40040172