MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0143
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
918 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......WESTERN KS/WESTERN OK/FAR NORTH TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 280130Z - 280730Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KS/WESTERN OK AND FAR NORTH TX
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KS/WESTERN OK. IR
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR -70 C OVER WESTERN
KS...AND 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM DDC AND OUN SHOWED SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG. REGIONAL VWP SHOWED A SOUTH SOUTHEAST
INFLOW OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS TRANSPORTING 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHWEST KS THROUGH WESTERN OK. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THE
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KDDC RADAR INDICATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OVER 2 INCHES (THOUGH
THIS IS LIKELY HAIL CONTAMINATED)...AND GIVEN THE MOISTURE SOURCE
REMAINS IN PLACE...LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...AS WELL
AS THE 18Z REGIONAL GEM AND 12Z NSSL WRF. 

CELL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW...AS CORFIDI VECTORS BECOME
ALMOST OPPOSED TO THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE SLOW CELL MOTION...
STRONG INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40419950 38329891 36099873 35349968 35460070 
            37150128 38440154 38750160 38730163 40400148