MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0144
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1036 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHERN TX/WEST TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 280236Z - 280830Z
 
SUMMARY..DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL TAP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ON A LOW LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WEST TX...MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE DRY
LINE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN AN
AXIS OF 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PER THE SPC
ANALYSIS)...WHICH IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION ON A LOW LEVEL 25
TO 35 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

KMAF RADAR SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES (THOUGH THIS
IS PROBABLY HAIL CONTAMINATED) ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FORMING
ON AN AXIS OF MUCAPE RANGING BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG. THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWED THE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST 08Z...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES.

THE LATEST HRRR SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2-3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...WHICH HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST RAP (THOUGH THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL WAS A BIT FURTHER WEST). THE REMAINDER OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WAS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE HRRR. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35440116 34860016 31520105 29180241 28630363 
            29480464 29490466 31900377 34350251