MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0145
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
133 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 280528Z - 280900Z
 
SUMMARY...MOIST AND UNSTABLE INFLOW WILL PERSIST AS CONVECTION
PROPAGATES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL KS
AT 05Z. THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE FOCUSED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO 2"/HR ARE OCCURRING IN THE HEAVIEST AREAS. MCV IS
VISIBLE ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY MOVING EASTWARD AND SEEMS TO BE
PROVIDING MID/UPPER-LVL SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MCV
AND SHOWS IT DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
CONVECTION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THIS AREA.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BY 08-10Z AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR.
WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL RATES OF 2"/HR TO CONTINUE IN LOCALIZED
AREAS...PARTICULARLY FOCUSED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.


RYAN

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39779642 39759543 39179477 37699470 37399572 
            37349647 37369714 37419800 37709849 38389886 
            38919856 39179789 39549722