MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0146
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 281945Z - 282345Z
 
SUMMARY...STRONG CONVECTION TRAINING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. 

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH TX...ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG
INSTABILITY (WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
J/KG). KLBB RADAR SHOWS ONE HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OVER 2
INCHES...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE VALUES... THESE AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY HAIL CONTAMINATED.

THE CONVECTION IS TRACKING ACROSS AN AREA WITH ONE AND THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH...AND TRAINING RAISES THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND AS UPPER
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE EXITING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. 

THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OK ON NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
THIS AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL INTO SOUTHERN
OK.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34899824 34879729 34839688 34789656 34659625 
            34379610 33889602 33439619 33079643 33039656 
            32679852 32709860 32530090 32400190 32410275 
            32880334 33770339 34210318 34190319 34540217 
            34700002 34779902 34819882