MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0148
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
742 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 282345Z - 290445Z
 
SUMMARY...OUTFLOWS FROM AN MCS CROSSING NORTH TX WILL SERVE AS
FOCI FOR NEW CONVECTION. TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS FROM THE NEW
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING

DISCUSSION...AN MCS CROSSING NORTH TX IS PUSHING OUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO ITS SOUTH...EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE LUB COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THE MCS ITSELF IS ACCELERATING EASTWARD AS IT
BECOMES COLD POOL DOMINATED. HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT
NEAR 3500 J/KG...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER NEAR 1.75
INCHES.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW (PER REGIONAL VWP) IS TRACKING NORTH TOWARD THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. AS THESE CELLS INTERSECT THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE OUTFLOW... MERGERS ARE LIKELY...WHICH RAISES THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING. KDYX RADAR INDICATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2
INCHES...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE VALUES...THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE
HAIL CONTAMINATED. 

THERE IS A MULTI HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION TO
PRODUCE 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE MERGERS AND TRAINING OCCUR ON
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE MCS. THE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME...AS HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34899722 34209530 32949503 32049651 31909852 
            32000093 32450178 33310140 33290142 34199958 
            34299947